CFP First Round Breakdown: What to expect and what to watch for

CFP First Round Breakdown

The second year of the 12 team playoff is set to kickoff tonight. The first round brings playoff games to campus, louder crowds, and teams with everything on the line. Some programs are trying to live up to the hype, others are just happy to be here and dangerous because of it. No matter the matchup, this weekend should be an interesting one.

#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Alabama – Norman, Oklahoma

Date/Time: Friday, Dec. 19 – 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium 

This first playoff game kicks off with an SEC matchup: Oklahoma hosting Alabama in a rematch. In their first meeting, the Sooners won 23-21 in Tuscaloosa. Oklahoma is 6-1 at home, and Alabama is 4-1 on the road. The Crimson Tide now travel to Norman as they try to move onto the next round. 

What to Watch:

• Oklahoma’s quarterback John Mateer running the offense in front of a home crowd — if he starts fast, the Sooners can control the game early.
  
  

• Alabama’s offense needs to get going early as they are coming off their worst offensive performance yet in the SEC Championship. Key players like Ty Simpson and sophomore reciever Ryan Williams need to get their connection back. Running back Jam Miller will be available as he missed the SEC Championship due to a leg injury. 
  
  

• Turnovers could play a huge role as both teams are physical, and one bad mistake could swing momentum fast.

It is a hostile environment in Norman, and Oklahoma’s ability to feed off the crowd could be big. For Alabama, execution and limiting turnovers will be essential to avoid falling behind. The winner will meet No. 1 Indiana at the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. 

 #7 Texas A&M vs. #10 Miami (FL) – College Station, Texas

Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 20 – 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Kyle Field 

This game features two programs making College Football Playoff history: Miami and Texas A&M will both be playing in the expanded CFP format for the first time. Miami barely edged out Notre Dame for that coveted Number 10 seed, and Texas A&M is coming off a loss to their rival Texas. 

Key angles:

• Miami’s speed and dynamic skill players such as Mark Fletcher and true freshmen phenom Malachi Toney pose big matchup problems, especially if the Hurricanes can force early mistakes from A&M.

• Texas A&M’s defense should feed off of Kyle Field, which is one of the toughest places to play in college football. 

• Historically, these two teams have met a handful of times, with Miami holding a slight edge in their series.

Expect this game to be decided late in the game. If Miami’s offensive line can protect Carson Beck and get the ball to their playmakers, it'll be hard for the Aggies. If Texas A&M’s pass rush gets home early, it could be a long afternoon for the Canes. The winner will face the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl on New Years Eve. 

#6 Ole Miss vs. #11 Tulane – Oxford, Mississippi

Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 20 – 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium 

Ole Miss brings explosive offensive talent and SEC experience into this game against a disciplined, well-coached Tulane squad led by John Sumrall that’s riding high after claiming a Group of Five championship and CFP berth.

The Matchup:

• This game is a rematch, as Ole Miss beat Tulane handily earlier in the season, 45-10. That history adds a layer of tension, as Tulane knows what it’s up against and won’t be content to simply replay their past performance. 

• Ole Miss ranks among the most explosive offenses in the country led by QB Trinidad Chambliss, and explosive RB Kewan Lacy, the Rebels are capable of striking quickly on any play. Even without Lane Kiffin, the Rebels are still a dangerous team. 

• For Tulane, discipline, clock control, and limiting mistakes are the keys. Keeping this game close into the fourth quarter gives them a chance to pull off an upset.

If Tulane can get early stops and make Ole Miss earn every yard, it could spring a surprise. Ole miss is playing with a major chip on their shoulder with Lane Kiffin leaving for LSU, so that could play a big factor in their run.  The winner will face No. 3 Georgia at the Allstate Sugar Bowl on New Years Day. 

 #5 Oregon vs. #12 James Madison – Eugene, Oregon

Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 20 – 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Autzen Stadium

Wrapping up the first round, we head to Eugene where Oregon’s powerful team meets a James Madison team making its first CFP appearance. 

Key Factors:

• Oregon can score in a variety of ways led by QB Dante Moore and TE Kenyon Sadiq, who's a projected first rounder in the NFL draft. 

• James Madison needs to block out the noise and play their game. They made it for a reason, and need to prove to the committee and the college football world that putting them in was a good idea. It'll be tough, but QB Alonza Barnett and RB Wayne Knight are ready to lead their team. 

• Weather and crowd at Autzen, one of college football’s more electric venues, will give JMU a real hard time as they are unfamiliar to this type of atmosphere. 

Oregon’s familiarity with big games like these shows they’re prepared, but James Madison is here to compete. The winner will face No. 4 Texas Tech at the Capital One Orange Bowl on New Years Day.

The Stakes and What Comes Next

• Winners move on to the CFP quarterfinals at historic New Year’s Six bowl sites.

• For many teams advancing would mark a historic playoff achievement.

• For traditional powers like Alabama, an early exit would raise tough questions about their future.